October 17, 2025
Consumer confidence is quickly becoming one of the most critical data points for restaurants to track. It reflects how optimistic or worried people feel about the economy and how those emotions translate into spending. When customers feel secure, they’re more likely to splurge on dining experiences, try new menu items, or upgrade to premium offerings. When confidence dips, however, discretionary spending slows and restaurants feel the pinch.
Restaurant Business reports that a 10-point decline in consumer confidence can reduce traffic by 0.5 to 2 percent. Since 2023, the index has fallen 14 points, putting pressure on operators to understand not just what customers are spending, but why they’re making those choices.
What Shapes Consumer Confidence?
Traditionally, restaurant traffic mirrored tangible economic factors such as employment rates and gas prices. Higher unemployment numbers and surging prices on gas and groceries caused customers to cut back on dining out. Today’s customers, however, are also basing spending decisions on their perceptions of economic health, which can run counter to restaurant metric reports. 75 percent of customers believe menu prices are higher now than in previous months. Yet, prices at quick-service restaurants were considerably lower in the first half of 2025 than in the previous two years. This gap between perception and data highlights a critical truth: it’s not enough for operators to manage costs. They must also manage how customers feel about spending.
By monitoring these influences, restaurant operators can anticipate consumer sentiment and plan promotions, pricing, and menus accordingly. This gap between perception and data highlights a critical truth: it’s not enough for operators to manage costs; they must also manage how customers feel about spending.
Adding Confidence to the Restaurant KPI Mix
Restaurant owners are familiar with analyzing key performance indicators to gauge overall business health. Prime costs, table turnover rates, customer satisfaction scores, and cost of goods sold (COGS) are all essential metrics for monitoring profits. Incorporating consumer confidence into this toolkit provides a more complete picture of how external conditions shape internal results.
Tracking Tips for Measuring Customer Confidence
Restaurant operators can gather and analyze data focused on consumer perception from a variety of sources:
- The US Consumer Conference Board reports
- Adding guest surveys asking about value perceptions
- Talking to other neighborhood businesses
When combined with sales data, these insights reveal whether dips in traffic are due to operational issues or broader economic anxieties.
Strategies to Strengthen Consumer Confidence
Even when macroeconomic conditions feel uncertain, restaurants can take practical steps to reassure guests and keep them coming back.
Demonstrate a Deal: Menu prices are top-of-mind for customers. Demonstrating value and quality can appeal to cost-conscious consumers. This can include:
- Demand-based pricing strategies that allow for price flexibility based on demand and market conditions.
- Happy hours, lunch specials, and “early-bird” menus at reduced prices.
- Neighborhood discounts and loyalty programs to encourage repeat sales.
Value doesn’t always mean “cheaper.” Emphasizing quality ingredients, generous portions, or unique experiences can make the price feel worth it.
Stay with the Seasons: Seasonal menus are a confidence booster on multiple levels. For restaurants, they provide access to affordable, fresh ingredients. For customers, they deliver vibrant flavors and the excitement of limited-time offerings. Seasonal specials also tap into the “fear of missing out,” motivating diners to act quickly.
Manage Your Menu: Operators can protect margins while appealing to cautious customers by rethinking menu pricing and design.
- Limit portion sizes to reduce waste while delivering value, ensuring customers are satisfied without overserving.
- Design menus that guide customer choices through clear layouts, engaging descriptions, and highlighted signature dishes.
- Maximize efficiency by cross-using ingredients across multiple dishes and eliminating single-use items.
Spend Smart on Supplies: Restaurants can improve customer confidence by keeping food costs in check. Supply warehouses negotiate great pricing from reputable producers, then pass the savings to businesses. Also, by buying in bulk, restaurants can keep ingredient costs predictable while maintaining quality. What’s more? Reputable supply stores have all restaurant essentials under one roof, saving on travel time and labor.
Partner With CHEF’STORE to Optimize Restaurant Operations
Consumer confidence is more than just an economic statistic. It’s a real-time gauge of how willing people are to dine out, try new menu items, and spend on experiences. Wow your customers with budget-friendly menu prices and high-quality ingredients.
CHEF’STORE helps the culinary community by offering quality products for all your restaurant needs! Plus, we provide business tools, from menu and website design to team training. Stop by one of our nearby locations to see what we have in store for you!